Contrarian Investor
This week a preliminary attempt to value gold with a different method. I have shown earlier how we can value the stock market: we can compare the replacement value of the underlying company assets …
Continue Reading about An Attempt to Value Gold (and A Price Forecast for 2018) →
I have written on multiple occasions about the US stock market overvaluation. Stock prices are high, too high, according to my analysis. The fact that the US stock market is overvalued is not a thing …
Continue Reading about Some Remarks on the Extremely Overvalued US Stock Market →
Two weeks ago, the Trump administration presented a detailed version of one of Trump's most important election promises: a tax reform. Not only does the Trump administration propose to lower corporate …
The Federal Reserve ended its QE3 large-scale asset purchase program already in 2014, which consisted of monthly purchases of billions of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). But the …
Continue Reading about This Is How the Fed Will Reduce Its Balance Sheet →
In 2007, value investor David Einhorn wrote a fascinating book titled “Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long, Short Story”, which is about how companies over the course of the business …
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are hot. Everybody is buying. The mantra of passive investing has created a billion-dollar industry for these “trackers.” And gold is not staying behind. One of the …
Continue Reading about Avoid (Physical) Gold ETFs! The Hidden Secret of ETFs →
Will gold and silver be ousted by Bitcoin? These types of stories are to be expected, especially now the price of Bitcoin keeps rising even surpassing the $4000/BTC barrier. The supply of Bitcoin in …
I write a lot about central banks, commercial banks, the economic cycle (the likelihood of a recession), valuations of other financial assets (particularly stock prices) and interest rates. All this, …
Continue Reading about Long-Term Returns Are a Matter of Days →
Despite disappointing US economic growth in the first quarter of 2017, the Federal Reserve has, generally speaking, been quite positive about the economic recovery and that opinion is as a general …
Continue Reading about The Hidden Secret of the US Banking System →
The large traditional oil-producing countries — both OPEC and non-OPEC — are still catching up with the new reality. After deciding to extend the production cuts — agreed upon half a year ago — for …
On various occasions I have written on how the gold price is determined. Some people, however, still insist that there exists a disconnect between “paper gold” and “physical gold.” This myth is a …
Continue Reading about What Sets the Gold Price? Critical Thoughts on Paper and Physical Gold →
President Donald Trump is not wasting any time: the trade deficit is public enemy number one. Not only did Trump show that he means business by declaring war on the Mexicans, as he threatened to …
Continue Reading about This Is How Trump’s Protectionism Will Push the U.S. Economy of the Cliff →
After manipulating the silver price for years, it recently came to light that Deutsche Bank also manipulated the gold price. At least, this is what happened if we were to believe a majority of gold …
Continue Reading about Deutsche Bank Manipulates Gold Price →
In many situations, we human beings make estimates by beginning at a start value. Psychologists call this phenomenon anchoring, or the reference-point-effect. I personally prefer the “new normal” …
What is the definition of insanity? Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. That according to this definition the president of the European Central Bank (ECB), Mario …
Continue Reading about The Insanity of Draghi and His Asset Purchase Program →
During a stock market boom some entrepreneurs seem to be pure geniuses. Look at Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, for instance, Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, or Reed Hastings, founder of Netflix. In times …
Continue Reading about Exuberance Precedes the Crash: Our Beloved Amazon →
