One day in 1996, a Wall Street trader named Nassim Nicholas Taleb went to see Victor Niederhoffer. Victor Niederhoffer was one of the most successful money managers in the country. He lived and worked …
Interview with Jim Rogers
The Real Reason Behind the U.S. Trade Deficit (and Why Trump’s Trade War Is Insane)
Trump is on a collision course with its trading partners: the U.S. trade deficit apparently proves that the U.S. is being fooled by its foreign trading partners. Its trading partners sell more to the …
An Attempt to Value Gold (and A Price Forecast for 2018)
This week a preliminary attempt to value gold with a different method. I have shown earlier how we can value the stock market: we can compare the replacement value of the underlying company assets …
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Some Remarks on the Extremely Overvalued US Stock Market
I have written on multiple occasions about the US stock market overvaluation. Stock prices are high, too high, according to my analysis. The fact that the US stock market is overvalued is not a thing …
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The Accounting Cycle and Financial Bubbles: On the Current Indifference on Accounting Methods
In 2007, value investor David Einhorn wrote a fascinating book titled “Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: A Long, Short Story”, which is about how companies over the course of the business …
Avoid (Physical) Gold ETFs! The Hidden Secret of ETFs
Exchange traded funds (ETFs) are hot. Everybody is buying. The mantra of passive investing has created a billion-dollar industry for these “trackers.” And gold is not staying behind. One of the …
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Will Bitcoin Displace Gold?
Will gold and silver be ousted by Bitcoin? These types of stories are to be expected, especially now the price of Bitcoin keeps rising even surpassing the $4000/BTC barrier. The supply of Bitcoin in …
Long-Term Returns Are a Matter of Days
I write a lot about central banks, commercial banks, the economic cycle (the likelihood of a recession), valuations of other financial assets (particularly stock prices) and interest rates. All this, …
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Interview by UFM (Spanish)
Exuberance Precedes the Crash: Our Beloved Amazon
During a stock market boom some entrepreneurs seem to be pure geniuses. Look at Elon Musk, founder of Tesla, for instance, Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon, or Reed Hastings, founder of Netflix. In times …
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How Passive Index Funds Set Us Up for the Biggest Crash in History
Over the past decade the debate between active and passive investing has reached a climax. Passive investing simply means investing in a fund that buys all the stocks in an index, assuming stocks have …
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This Is How Big the Bubble in Sovereign Debt Is
The very day the previous bull market in gold came to a halt, the bull market in fixed income began. Thirty-six summers later this bull market is coming to its climax. But no one seems to be aware of …
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Video: Exclusive Interview with Jim Rogers
Last week, I had an exclusive talk with legendary investor Jim Rogers. Not only did Jim Rogers predict several recessions and stock market crashes correctly, he also recommended everyone to invest in …
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I Talked with Jim Rogers and This Is What He Said (Do Not Miss This)
Past week I had the pleasure to spend many hours with one of the investors I admire most, legendary contrarian and adventurer Jim Rogers. He visited Guatemala for a few days, as he was invited by the …
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Kondratiev Waves Are Nonsense
Many investors point to Kondratiev waves (also called supercycles or long waves) as a reason to invest in gold. The best-known advocate of the Kondratiev cycle may very well be Jaap van Duijn, a …
Some Gold Investors Need a Healthy Dose of Realism
Perhaps you’ve heard of John Hathaway; he is a senior portfolio manager of the Tocqueville Gold Fund. Earlier this week he wrote in Barron’s that "an acute shortage of gold can boost prices." But, as …
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Every Investor Should Know This Statistic
Old market wisdom tells us to "buy the dips." And most say that stock prices usually rise, apart from some unexpected 'shocks.' However, this presents a distorted view of how the markets truly work. …
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